What if you could make money by selling people securities, or equivalent, that have no inherent value, but people think will eventually be worth substantially more than they paid you for them? You can potentially make money from an endeavor that provides no value to the economy or society. You can make money off of […]
One of my recent readings has been the late Hans Rosling’s Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World — and Why Things Are Better Than You Think. (Flatiron Books, 2018). It is a fascinating read, loaded with valuable insights. Hans Rosling asked chimpanzees to answer 13 multiple-choice questions about the state of the world. […]
During the Era of Colonialism (late 1400s to the mid- to late 1900s), European powers colonized most of Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania, the Middle East and the Arctic, excluding Antarctica. This typically involved oppression and exploitation of indigenous ethnic and racial groups inside the geographical area colonized. This oppression and exploitation often is […]
I recently finished James Suzman’s fascinating book Work: A Deep History, from the Stone Age to the Age of Robots (Penguin Press, 2021). He chronicles humans’ work practices over many millennia. The meaning of work has changed dramatically over this period. Perspectives that we take for granted emerged much more recently than one might have […]
The old normal involved lots of bus, metro, and uber rides to meetings with sponsors, colleagues, and friends in pursuit of new opportunities, progress on existing opportunities, and just plain socializing. Transit time was at least an hour per day and sometimes two, sitting in a bus, train, or car catching up on your email […]
There are several forces currently driving change in our society: Pandemic impacts that have completely upset the status quo Economic impacts of the pandemic that have left many in dire straights Disproportionate effects of economic, educational and social inequities These forces have led to an overwhelmed healthcare system, enormous unemployment, and intense frustration on the […]
Wicked problems defy formulation and resolution. They involve conflicting values, concerns, and perceptions that lead to conflicts, strong positions, and perhaps even hatred of the “others” who have opposing views. We are faced with roughly 50% of the country being in fundamental conflict with the other 50% of the country. Actually, Biden-Harris won 51.3% of […]
If you think the complexity of the current situation – pandemic, global warming, and race relations – is overwhelming, I have a suggestion for coping with the complexity. The just published issue of The Bridge (https://www.nae.edu/Bridge.aspx) provides a wonderfully broad and intriguing set of perspectives of how complexity is manifested throughout our society. We cannot […]
Facebook, Twitter, and other emergent platforms have resulted in the Balkanization of the world of information. There are large subpopulations that believe the moon landing was faked, climate change and the pandemic are hoaxes, and the presidential election was fraudulently stolen from Donald Trump. They only pay attention to information sources that support these views. […]
It is so very easy to get angry about the current situation in the US. Pandemic, recession, hurricanes, flooding, fires, earthquakes, protests about racial injustice, attempts to pack the Supreme Court and undermine elections are all woven together over the past six months. It is almost a perfect storm of calamities. My anger is not […]
Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies (Cambridge University Press, 1988) presaged Jared Diamond’s Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Viking Press, 2004). Both books provide vivid explanations of how societies fail and why. Societies create mechanisms to deal with new challenges. Walls are built to thwart Mongol hoards. Regulations are created to […]
It is very difficult to foster change and innovation in complex social systems. You need to understand key stakeholders; their perceptions, concerns, and values; and how to gain their support for central elements of the changes being entertained. It can take much time and work to build a coalition capable of moving forward. Examples of […]
When all the days seem the same and the patterns of daily life endlessly repeat, you can begin to feel that time is gone. The clock has stopped. Nothing progresses. Everything is now. The future, even the past, is on hold. Everything will repeat, again and again. Of course, repetition has always been true. Birth, […]
Zoom and other online platforms are working out pretty well. Teaching class this way is better than many people expected. Many types of doctor’s appointments are much easier logistically and are more satisfying than driving, waiting, etc. Social get-togethers using these platforms are not as good, but they are much better than social isolation. Once […]
Over the past two days I was immersed in two Zoom meetings, one for 6 1/2 hours and another for 7 hours. The first was a National Academy of Engineering convocation, which I helped organize. I was one of the two speakers who wrapped up each half day. The second was a Division of Behavioral […]
We have recently learned that blacks have been disproportionately dying from the coronavirus. This is not because the virus is sensitive to the race of its victims. It is because blacks are much more likely to have health issues that undermine their abilities to survive the virus – asthma, diabetes, obesity, etc. A recent study, […]
The government has delivered on its promise, via statutes and regulations, that every building in the US be heated by coal-fired electricity by 2050. All buildings – residential, commercial, and industrial – are required to have coal-fired electrical generators within the building. Every building now has a coal bin and coal deliveries are ubiquitous. All […]
George and Alice told Sam about Emily and Edward’s revelations. “Pretty impressive, actually. You taught them all about sex,” Sam remarked. “So, you aren’t concerned that they know all about you?” George asked. “Yes, I am concerned. Emily and Edward are now SoftCorp moles.” “Like Kim Philby in the early 1950s?” Alice asked. “Wow, you […]
The man reached into his suit coat pocket, pulled out a wallet, and flipped it open to show his badge. “Agent Sam Baker, FBI.” George froze. He did not know what to do. After a few seconds of just staring at Baker, he said, “How do you know me?” “We have been watching Freethinker Forum […]
George Adams was a graduate student in Public Policy at Georgetown. He relied on a cognitive assistant that he named Emily after his favorite aunt. It was sort of a fun thing to do, thinking that Emily might be of some I’ll-defined assistance. George totally underestimated the possibilities. Emily learned from everything George did. His […]
We have this apparent predilection to want too much of a good thing. Painkillers have their place, but not as a way of life. Smart phones are enormously helpful, but do we really need 24×7 texts on every aspect of life? Of course, this is not new. Radio and TV talk shows have long captured […]
A couple of ideas intersected this week. First, a piece I was reading suggested that the endeavor they were elaborating was “As difficult as baptizing a cat.” Depending on how you have related with cats in the past, this statement evokes an immediate sense of what the baptism experience would be like. I am on […]
To achieve promotion and tenure in science and engineering, you need 16-20 articles published in reputable journals. You need to accomplish this in five years, so you need 3-4 articles per year. You need to publish a significant portion of these articles with your PhD students. I will assume 10 with PhD students and 10 […]
I was at one of my favorite pubs for brunch on Sunday, Town Hall on Wisconsin Avenue. A few of us regulars, including the bartender, got talking about the new normal – Occasional Government. We tried to find some analogy to help understand what is going on and likely to happen. I suggested the following […]
I posted a piece on Emily, my cognitive assistant, last March. Several readers have asked me what she really knows. Beyond deep understanding of health and well being, driverless cars, and complex systems in general, what does she know about me? She has complete access to everything I do via computer or other digital devices. […]
My post “Cultures of Compliance” in September 2016 led to quite a few responses from readers. I noted then that a culture of compliance laced with administrative incompetence is particularly lethal. Many readers’ responses built on this theme. In this post, I highlight some of the stories they related. Many stories related to food, primarily […]
A university chief executive has come to realize that competitive forces are closing in. Fortunately, the president has an AI based cognitive assistant to help formulate plans for addressing this new reality. This assistant is named George. “How can these projections be correct, George? We keep on raising enrollment and tuition to generate surplus revenue […]
The first-order consequence of driverless cars, when fully deployed and successful, is that humans will no longer drive cars. That’s the whole idea. Cars will be without drivers. The many Uber rides that I take won’t change that much, except there will be no human driver. There are higher-order consequences of driverless cars being fully […]
The October issue of Consumer Reports outlines “Secrets to Stress-Free Flying.” This 14-page article provides an interesting history of the airline industry, including the forces that drove your once loved airline to become an object of intense scorn and hatred for most passengers. Over recent years, the airlines have refined their strategy for making record […]
Many pundits argue that driverless cars will soon be here. You can argue with the timelines they articulate, but it is difficult to disagree with the distinct possibility of the technology eventually maturing and becoming an increasing portion of the vehicles on the road. This technology will be truly disruptive. There will be the benefits […]
The August 2016 issue of Consumer Reports summarizes a much longer report from revealnews.org on student debt. Their headline is 42 million people owe $1.3 trillion. Their survey found that “45% of the people with student loan debt said that college was not worth the cost. Of those who said college wasn’t worth the money, […]
In “The Quartet: Orchestrating the Second American Revolution, 1783-1789,” Joseph J. Ellis chronicles the planning, drafting, and ratification of the US Constitution and Bill of Rights in 1789. The title refers to George Washington, Alexander Hamilton, John Jay and James Madison. These four men, with support from Robert Morris, Gouverneur Morris and Thomas Jefferson, led […]
Just watched this movie this week, after having read many of the books published on the Great Recession, as well as having served on a National Academy study committee of what happened. During this study, I had a chance to chat with the second most senior executive at one of the major banks involved, one […]
There is growing evidence that NFL referees have been instructed to make calls – particularly pass interference calls and false start calls – to control the outcomes of NFL games. The NFL vehemently denies these accusations, but the data are very clear. The NFL knows the outcomes that will maximize television revenues as well as […]
The airlines have long recognized the inherent liabilities of their frequent flyer programs. There is – or was – an enormous legacy of free flights waiting to be redeemed by frequent travelers who planned to take their families on vacations or use their nest egg of points for retirement travel. The airlines, however, are working […]
Over the past two years, I have become a frequent train traveler between New York and mostly Washington, but also Albany and Boston. The Acela is more expensive than flying but much more convenient and usually on time. The other Amtrak trains provide much poorer service. Delays are frequent; an hour or more is not […]
How many user names and passwords do you have? Do you need passwords with exactly six or eight or ten characters including as least one numeric character and one non-alphabetic or non-numeric character? How often are you required to change them for security reasons? Do you have a list, tucked away physically or electronically that […]
Various pundits in sundry domains attempt to predict what will happen. In domains such as climate change, urban systems, and national politics, which are laced with human and social phenomena, such predictions are folly. There are far too many possible ways in which individuals and social groups can behave in response to evolving events, whether […]
Change tends to be very difficult, but it does happen. Technology is one of the key drivers of change. Technologies enable new possibilities, such as typing this post on my iPad early Sunday morning, sipping coffee and listening to the rain. The iPad means that I can be productive any time, any place. This capability […]
Over the past two semesters, I have been helping Georgia Tech undergraduate teams to contribute to transforming healthcare delivery. Their senior “capstone” projects have focused on patient in-flow (Emergency Department), in-patient operations (Operating Rooms) and patient out-flow (Discharge and Bed Turnover). Three eight-person teams addressed each of these areas of hospital operations. The problems these […]
Much of contemporary analytics focuses on tabulating and portraying characteristics of existing systems, whether they are for energy supply, health delivery or a wide range of other complex systems. This type of analytics addresses “what is” or in many cases “what was.” This approach is backward looking, which makes a lot of sense if there […]
Malcolm Gladwell popularized the notion of a “tipping point,” the point at which something is displaced from a state of equilibrium and evolves, either quickly or slowly, to a new and different state of equilibrium. For example, my telephone bill used to be something like $20 per month; now it is several hundred. The capabilities […]
It is typical to think about change in terms of intentions and consequences. We intend to exercise more or eat better to achieve the consequences of weight loss and improved fitness. The President intends to move the country towards greater use of renewable energy sources to achieve the consequences of greater energy independence and decreased […]
