I recently read Javier Blas and Jack Farchy’s The World for Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources (Oxford University Press, 2021). This fascinating book reads like a novel, almost a page turner. What will the traders do next? They chronicle the history of commodity traders of oil, grain, metals, and […]
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Challenges,
Complexity,
Creative Destruction,
Economics,
Energy,
Food,
Incentives,
Information,
Networks,
Technology,
Tipping Points No Comments |
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During the Era of Colonialism (late 1400s to the mid- to late 1900s), European powers colonized most of Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Oceania, the Middle East and the Arctic, excluding Antarctica. This typically involved oppression and exploitation of indigenous ethnic and racial groups inside the geographical area colonized. This oppression and exploitation often is […]
Isaac Asimov introduced three rules for robots in his 1942 short story “Runaround,” which is included in his 1950 collection I, Robot. “First Law: A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. Second Law: A robot must obey the orders given it by human […]
Facebook, Twitter, and other emergent platforms have resulted in the Balkanization of the world of information. There are large subpopulations that believe the moon landing was faked, climate change and the pandemic are hoaxes, and the presidential election was fraudulently stolen from Donald Trump. They only pay attention to information sources that support these views. […]
Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies (Cambridge University Press, 1988) presaged Jared Diamond’s Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Viking Press, 2004). Both books provide vivid explanations of how societies fail and why. Societies create mechanisms to deal with new challenges. Walls are built to thwart Mongol hoards. Regulations are created to […]
How can we address alternative facts? I think we should differentiate realities that can be empirically verified versus assertions about why these realities have occurred. Succinctly, we need to differentiate data and evidence from various pundits’ interpretations. I am constantly amazed at the wealth of pundits available who will comment on anything. There are thousands […]
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Challenges,
Cities,
Emergent Change,
Forces,
Government,
History,
Incentives,
Information,
Scenarios,
Sports,
Tipping Points,
Water No Comments |
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When do organizations fail? It is typically when their financials go south. Their deficits are unsustainable. Cash is draining from the enterprise. Their strategies for stemming the tide are too little, too late. Why do organizations fail? What causes these financial outcomes? The story that led to these consequences almost always started playing out much […]
The first-order consequence of driverless cars, when fully deployed and successful, is that humans will no longer drive cars. That’s the whole idea. Cars will be without drivers. The many Uber rides that I take won’t change that much, except there will be no human driver. There are higher-order consequences of driverless cars being fully […]
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Autonomy,
Challenges,
Change,
Cities,
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Energy,
Healthcare,
Information,
Tipping Points,
Transportation,
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I have spent much time in recent years studying the possibility of transformation, fundamental change, of healthcare and higher education. For many years, healthcare was the poster child for runaway costs. That is still an issue, but cost control has received quite a bit of attention. Higher education is now the poster child for runaway […]
Engineering and science account for roughly three quarters of all PhD graduates, with half of these degrees awarded to US students and the other half to international students. Many of these graduates aspire to tenure-track faculty positions at universities. However, the percentage of faculty openings that are tenure track has been steadily decreasing for quite […]
New York — Major US airlines announced today a new pricing model for air travel. Zero airfares. Free. The airlines have decided to unbundle all aspects of air travel. Customers will only pay for the services they desire. If they avoid all services, they will fly for free. The airline CEOs as a group issued […]
In 1973, Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber published “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning” in the journal Policy Science (volume 4, pp. 155-169). In this article, they characterized “wicked problems” as follows: There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem Wicked problems have no stopping rule – there is always a […]
Much of contemporary analytics focuses on tabulating and portraying characteristics of existing systems, whether they are for energy supply, health delivery or a wide range of other complex systems. This type of analytics addresses “what is” or in many cases “what was.” This approach is backward looking, which makes a lot of sense if there […]
Posted on November 5, 2010, 7:28 am, by Bill Rouse, under
Change,
Education.
Here are all the suggestions received thus far: Altbach, P.G., Berdahl, R.O., & Gumport, P.J. (Eds.).(2005). American Higher Education in the Twenty-First Century: Social, Political and Economic Challenges. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. Barke, R. (2000). Sustainable Technology/Development and Challenges to Engineering Education. Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Education, St. Louis, MO. […]
Posted on October 11, 2010, 4:06 pm, by Bill Rouse, under
Change,
Education.
The first universities in Europe — University of Bologna (1088), University of Oxford (1096), University of Paris (1150), University of Modena (1175) — began as private corporations of teachers and their pupils. Soon they realized they needed protection against local city authorities. They petitioned secular power for privileges and this became the model for academia. […]
Posted on August 9, 2010, 12:47 pm, by Bill Rouse, under
Change.
Malcolm Gladwell popularized the notion of a “tipping point,” the point at which something is displaced from a state of equilibrium and evolves, either quickly or slowly, to a new and different state of equilibrium. For example, my telephone bill used to be something like $20 per month; now it is several hundred. The capabilities […]